㊲ Outline of work on global warming

In 1977, the National Academy of Sciences joined the discussion and conducted a large-scale review by a panel of experts. The conclusion was clear. To make this conclusion concrete, the Panel decided to specify and publish a range of numbers. Dividing the difference between the four-degree rise predicted by Hansen's GCM against the doubling of CO2 and the recent figure of about two degrees by Manabe, Charney's panel will show that the Earth will be about three degrees plus or minus in the next century. I asserted that it would be 50% warmer, that is, 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius.

Any warming due to the greenhouse effect will be obscured not only by random natural fluctuations and pollution of industrial origin, but also by some basic planetary physics. If something heats the atmosphere, most of it is absorbed by layers near the surface of the ocean. As the layer warms up, awareness of the problem should be delayed. In 1981, Hansen's group predicted that by the end of the 20th century, CO2-induced warming should exceed the noise levels of natural climate change, given how fast CO2 accumulates.

In 1986, the British Climatic Research Unit, which analyzes global temperatures, presented a comprehensive global analysis of average surface temperatures. The warmest three years of the 134-year record were all in the 1980s.
Unprecedented warming is underway.

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㊱ Outline of work on global warming

A particularly troublesome problem is the change in clouds. Depending on the type of clouds and how high they are in the atmosphere, they can either cool or warm an area (by reflecting sunlight) or (trap heat radiation from below). It is possible. Moreover, little was known about how aerosols of atmospheric dust and chemical particles affect cloud formation.

Nevertheless, scientists' opinions have begun to settle in the choice between warming and cooling. In the course of nature, the Earth will gradually fall into the glacial period, but the course is no longer natural.

The results of different types of studies all pointed in the same direction. As Kellogg pointed out, rain will wash away aerosols in the lower atmosphere within a few weeks. Besides, many countries are working hard to reduce air pollution. So whether aerosols warm or cool the Earth, the greenhouse effect of increased CO2 (which stays in the atmosphere for centuries) must ultimately dominate.

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㉟ Outline of work on global warming

Manabe and his collaborators are creating a model that includes a mechanism by which air and water vapor transfer heat from the surface of the earth to the atmosphere above. However, the calculations required were so large that they had to be simplified to a single pillar in one dimension, which represented the atmosphere of the entire globe or a latitude zone.

1967 Using this model, we examined how much the global average temperature changes with respect to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. For doubling the CO2 concentration. It was a rise of about 2 degrees in global average temperature. This paper convinced experts that "this is a worrying issue."

Using this one-dimensional air column model as a basic component, Manabe and his collaborator Richard Weatherald assembled the GCM in the early 1970s. It's still a simplification, instead of real land and sea terrain, half land and half swamp planets, but the reflection of sunlight at each latitude is observed by meteorological satellite Nimbus 3. It was in good agreement with the ground.

However, the model was still far from the real planet and had to wait for overall improvement.

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㉞ Outline of work on global warming

By about 1970, computer models were forecasting weather up to three days ahead, producing more accurate results than older forecasters based on heuristics. The first public satellite with global weather was launched in 1960, and for decades, secret weather satellites used the sophisticated technology developed for spy satellites. It was created and continued to operate.

The model by Mints and Arakawa in 1972 succeeded in roughly simulating the large changes that accompany the seasonal shift of sunlight.

In addition, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has developed a meteorological model as an application of a mission to study the atmosphere of planets, and succeeded in a simulation that moves an order of magnitude faster than the general circulation model and looks quite realistic.

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㉝ Outline of work on global warming

n 1958, Manabe was invited to join a computer modeling group founded by John von Neumann. His team sought to build a global three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model that directly derives the climate from basic physics equations for fluid dynamics and energy. By 1965, Manabe and Smagorinsky had completed a three-dimensional model by dividing the atmosphere into nine levels and solving basic equations.

However, the calculation was decisively influenced by what kind of clouds increased under certain conditions. The modeler had to develop "parameterization". In other words, prepare a set of numerical values ​​(parameters) that represent the net effect of all clouds in one square under given conditions.

Smagorinsky briefly described these issues in 1969. "We are now reaching a level where the variability of simulation results is comparable to the uncertainty about the structure of the real atmosphere."

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㉜ Outline of work on global warming

Such uncertainty was revealed at a workshop in Dahlem, Germany, in 1976. Borin argued that human harm to forests and soil released very large amounts of CO2. Since atmospheric concentrations are not rising that fast, the ocean must be taking up CO2 much more efficiently than geochemists such as blockers have calculated.

Botanist George Woodwell, based on his own calculations, deforestation and agriculture emit as much or twice as much CO2 into the air as the amount released by burning fossil fuels. Insisted that it might become. His message is that our attack on the forest should end.

By the mid-1970s, economic and ideological conservative forces had made elaborate intellectual claims and expert public relations to counter government regulation for any purpose. The fossil fuel industry has made multi-faceted claims about global warming, trying to convince the general public that there is nothing to worry about.

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英単語 動詞 i

identify を見分ける、の身元を確認する
ignore を無視する
imagine を想像する、だと思う
immigrate  移住してくる
import を輸入する
impress 感動させる、感銘を与える、~を印象づける
impress (印を)押す、に刻み込む
improve を改良する、進歩する、上達する
incine を傾ける、~したい気持である、~する傾向がある
include を含む、含める
increase 増える、増やす
indicate を指し示す、指示する、暗示する
infect  伝染する、(病気を)うつす、汚染する
influence に影響を与える、影響する
inform に知らせる、通知する
inhabit (集団で)に住む、生息する
inherit を受け継ぐ、相続する
injure を傷つける、(感情を)害する、損なう
inquire を訪ねる、問い合わせる、調べる
insert を挿入する、差しはさむ
insist 強く主張する、言い張る、強く要求する
inspect を検査する、綿密に調べる、視察する
inspire を励ます、激励する、(感情を)起こさせる、霊感を与える
install 取り付ける、設置する、(ソフトを)インストールする、組み込む
instruct に指示する、命令する、に教える
insult を侮辱する
insure に保険を掛ける
intend ~するつもりである inteded for ~向けである
interest に興味を持たせる
interfere 干渉する、口出しをする、邪魔する、妨げる
interpret を通訳する、を解釈する、説明する
interrupt の邪魔をする、を中断させる
interview に面接する、対談する
introduce を紹介する、引き合わせる、(初めて)伝える、導入する、取り入れる
invade に侵入する、侵略する
invent を発明する、考案する、(話を)でっち上げる
invest を投資する、(時間、労力を)費やす
investigate 調査する、捜査する
invite を招待する、を誘う、に頼む
involve を含む、伴う、(事件に)巻き込む be involved in(with) ~に夢中になる、に関わっている
irritate いらいらさせる、怒らせる、を刺激する
iron アイロンをかける

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㉛ Outline of work on global warming

The accumulation of wood, peat, soil and other terrestrial ecosystems and the organic carbons present in them has been fairly stable for millions of years, due to the fact that they were "fertilized" when CO2 increased. Plants grow well in the air, and CO2 is more taken up by plants and transformed into trees and soil. This is one explanation for how the atmosphere has been automatically stabilized.

Statistics on fossil fuel use compiled by the government show how much CO2 is entering the atmosphere through industrial production.
Keyring measurements also showed how much CO2 stayed in the air and increased the curve of the graph year after year, which had been patient for decades.
From a comparison of the two, more than half of the CO2 generated by fossil fuels is absorbed. It could be either the ocean or the biomass.

In the 1970s, Wally Blocker developed process calculations for carbon movements in the ocean, including those by organisms. The calculations show that the ocean is taking in much of the new CO2, but not all. The rest must have been incorporated into the biosphere in some way.

Are trees and other plants growing fresher due to the fertilizer effect of CO2? Every gardening enthusiast knows that fertilizing plants with a lot of fertilizer promotes growth, but only to a certain level. No one knows what the level of CO2 is when it is given a lot of CO2 to various kinds of plants in the world.

Keyring warns. "In fact, we have to think of the rate of increase in biomass as an unknown number."
There are also predictions that land plants may not inhale CO2 at all. In addition, deforestation also increases the decomposition of organic matter in soil, which could ultimately make terrestrial ecosystems a major source of CO2.

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