㊻ Outline of work on global warming

The thermohaline circulation that drives this conveyor belt is a global seawater movement that causes a major replacement of water in the North Atlantic. This cycle is actually very volatile, and even without the melting of the continental ice sheet, rainfall may only increase freshwater and change the balance.

Even at current CO2 concentrations, if the North Atlantic is in a different equilibrium and the steady flow of warm water ceases, a circulatory outage could occur promptly.

Blocker has made this unpleasant news public. The climate system is a whimsical beast, and we're poking it with a sharp stick.

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㊺ Outline of work on global warming

The vast amount of water, slowly moving northward near the surface of the Atlantic Ocean, plays an important role in heat transport, as does the Gulf Stream. The amount of energy carried near Iceland is close to one-third of the heat the sun gives to the entire North Atlantic Ocean.

If something stops this conveyor belt, the climate will change for most of the entire Northern Hemisphere. In addition, the ocean-atmospheric system was found to have multiple stable modes of operation, and it was found that this large conveyor belt could easily stop.

In a sense, this is not a discovery, but an extension of Chamberlin's early speculation in the early 20th century that circulation would cease when the salinity of the surface waters of the North Atlantic Ocean was low.

Such circulatory cessation occurs at the end of the last glacial period from geological surveys. The North American ice sheet melted, damming the water and creating a huge lake. It seems that the water of this lake was suddenly released and a huge amount of fresh water flooded the ocean, causing circulation stoppage and cooling. This timing was just around the beginning of the "New Dryas period".

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㊹ Outline of work on global warming

There was a problem with the computer model. The model was designed so that only smooth changes occur due to its structure, but in the real world, even if you keep pushing something constantly, the object may not move for a while and may start moving suddenly at some point. ..

Anxious evidence in the climate system confirmed it. Long cores excavated at the Greenland Camp Century in the 1960s show hints of rapid climate change, as well as temperatures recorded from the oxygen isotope ratios of samples excavated at the second excavation site. The jumps shown in were also consistent with the jumps seen in the Camp Century sample.

In 1984, Dansger reported that it was consistent with the dramatic cooling of the New Dryas period, which occurred in a fairly short period of time, perhaps only a few hundred years.
Blockers sought to link this ice core report to oceanographic interests, resulting in surprisingly important calculations. It was seawater that carried heat to the north, which was described as a "large conveyor belt."

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㊸ Outline of work on global warming

With the amazing progress of computers and the addition of oceanographic data, oceanographic modeling has begun to be recognized as a specialty.

Radiocarbon, tritium and other fallout scattered during nuclear tests in the late 1950s fall to ocean surfaces around the world and are gradually transported deeper into the tracer of the three-dimensional ocean circulation. It helped to make an accurate map of the main features.

Throughout the 1980s, marine and atmospheric models were improved. As expected, the absorption of heat by the ocean has been found to delay the emergence of global warming for decades. As Hansen's group warned, by the time the rise in atmospheric temperature becomes apparent, the greenhouse effect, which causes much greater warming, may be inevitable.

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㊷ Outline of work on global warming

A team was formed to build a model that combines Brian's ocean model, which was adopted by the Princeton University group to build a numerical model of ocean independence, with GCM of Manabe's atmosphere. In 1968, it completed 1100 hours of computer execution. The deep ocean circulation was out of equilibrium, but we were able to see exactly how air, water, and energy were moved during the simulation.

Then in 1975, he published the results of the first ocean-atmospheric coupled GCM with a rough Earth-like terrain. The oceans of their simulated world could not yet show a complete cycle, but the results were approaching reality.

The Washington team in Boulder also developed another marine model based on Brian's model and combined it with their own GCM. The result was similar to the Manabe and Brian models, with a satisfying proof.

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㊶ Outline of work on global warming

Of the climate system, the ocean general circulation model, which is also esoteric but will clearly play a central role, has a number of difficulties. First, the atmosphere was measured daily in thousands of places, but there are only occasional dispersed data for the ocean.

Second, in the case of atmospheric models, the complex behavior of storm-causing vortices can often be replaced by simple equations or averages, but the process at sea takes decades to traverse the entire ocean basin. The movement must be calculated in detail. Even the fastest computers of the 1970s lacked the capacity to calculate the core features of marine systems and could not even handle what seemed simple, such as vertical heat transport from one layer to the next.

Innumerable vortices of various sizes played a decisive role in energy transport. The smallest was the microscopic circulation, which carried heat down from the surface in some way that no one had identified. The largest was a larger vortex than Belgium, which had been squeezing through the ocean for months. Surprisingly, most of the energy in the marine system was carried by these eddies, not by the flow around the entire ocean, such as the Gulf Stream.

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㊵ Outline of work on global warming

Computer modeling may be the only way to understand the complex systems of global warming, but there was still much to learn before we could write equations that accurately represented all the important effects.

A concrete analysis of the tremendous vibrations of the glacial period is considered to be very useful for understanding the climate system. A submarine drilling project from the 1970s to the 1980s pulled long cores from the seafloor around the world, with four glacial and interglacial cycles dating back over 400,000 years from the temperature sequence recorded in the clay layer. Succeeded in the sample survey.

According to the results of the Vostalk core survey, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 50% lower than the CO2 concentration in the interglacial period in any glacial period. No one could explain why CO2 concentrations fluctuate, but it is certain that CO2 plays a central role in climate change.

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㊴ Outline of work on global warming

Also, the study of other gases, which had been rarely considered until now, has begun. When the concentration of atmospheric gases such as methane and nitrogen compounds doubles, the average ground temperature rises by another degree. Some scientists were aware of the importance of methane and were investigating its role in the global carbon cycle. Methane is produced by bacteria that grow in the soil of gardens and in the digestive tract of all animals, and the amount of natural release is much higher than the amount of methane that leaks by digging out natural gas. However, human influence cannot be ignored. For example, it is released in large quantities by bacteria in the stomach of a rapidly growing herd of cattle.

The increase in methane concentration began centuries ago, with air sample surveys showing an increase of 11% in the decade to 1988 alone. Methane molecules have a greenhouse effect 20 times that of CO2. Examples of alarming feedback include concerns about the release of vast amounts of carbon stored in the permafrost beneath the northern tundra, and being kept as individuals in the mud of the ocean floor around the world. There is concern that a huge amount of methane hydrate called "clathrate" will melt.

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㊳ Outline of work on global warming

Volcanic eruptions and sunspot periodic fluctuations are other natural fluctuation factors other than the greenhouse effect that hinder the reliable understanding and confirmation of global warming due to the greenhouse effect.

Almost no sunspots are recorded during the "Little Ice Age" during the freezing age of the 16th and 17th centuries, as reported in European meteorological records. The decrease in sunspots means that the magnetic field of the sun is weak, more cosmic rays penetrate the magnetic field, and more radioactive carbon is produced. Sus suggests that it may somehow be linked to the cold winter, but it has not been revealed.

It was reported that one of the other factors of complication added to the study of the atmosphere in the 1990s was chlorofluorocarbons, which absorbed infrared radiation tremendously. Freon also stays in the air for centuries, partly drifting to the stratosphere and being activated by UV light, becoming a reaction catalyst for ozone destruction. In 1977, the United States banned the use of CFCs in spray cans.

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